Emotions + Contra-sentiment. A Powerful Betting Combination…
The Philadelphia Eagles woes have hardly flown under the radar. Michael Vick, out. Lesean Mccoy, out. Andy Reid, one foot out the door. With the adversity handing like a dark cloud, can they show-up on the National Monday Night football stage?
At the sportsbooks, oddsmakers have set the Eagles as a 3 point home underdog. As we will show you in this Eagles vs Panthers free pick, we fell that emotions will play an enormous roll in the outcome of this game, and they will strongly favor the Eagles. Furthermore this line has been mis-set due to extreme one-sided betting sentiment. Because of this, we are seeing excellent value taking the Eagles +3 in Week 12 Monday Night football.
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Eagles vs Panthers: Line, Over/Under, Consensus
|CAROLINA PANTHERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES|
|Monday, Nov 26th, 8:30pm||Odds||Consensus|
|More Live NFL Lines at Bovada Sportsbook…|
Eagles vs Panthers Free Pick Notes:
The visiting Carolina Panthers enter this contest with an overall 2-8 record (4-6 ATS)…
The Panthers continue to be overrated by the media and public. They entered the season as the ‘sexy’ pick in the NFC, and the masses have yet realize how poor this team has played in 2012.
Lead by an grossly overrated Cam Newton, this team is error prone, undisciplined and has motivational question marks. As we have seen in past weeks (and you will see tonight) this Panthers team will make mistakes at key moments, which cost them the game or the wager…
Lets look at Carolina’s rankings in several advanced statistically categories to get a feel for their efficiency:
- 28th in points per game (18.4)
- 22nd in 3rd down conversion
- 5th in RZ scoring % TDs (63%)
- 27th in INT % thrown (3.3%)
- 7th in opponents Redzone scoring TD % (44%)
- 12th in YDSAa (yards per pass attempt allowed)
- Sack % (6.7%)
- 16th Takeaways per game (1.5)
I feel statistical will play a small roll in the outcome of tonight’s contest, but I want to point out that Carolina is an ‘average’ team at best.
The outcome of this game will be decided by motivation and preparation As I will highlight in the summary section, I do not feel that Carolina is a mature or disciplined enough team to “put away” the reeling Eagles.
Now, lets talk about the Philadelphia Eagles. They are the story in this Monday Night Week 12 matchup. They enter this contest with an overall 3-7 record (2-8 ATS)…
What is there to say about the Eagles that hasn’t already been said. To summary, their 2012 season has been a disaster. The Eagles trials and tribulations have been highly publicized and scrutinized by the NFL media and “experts”…
Just check the “experts” picks and the betting consensus (86% of bettors taking CAR and laying 3 road points!) to test the sentiment towards the Eagles…
But, I take a different approach…
NFL football is a game of emotions. Plain and simple. NFL football players are prideful. Regardless of their record, they DO NOT want to be embarrassed. This especially holds true on a Prime Time, Monday Night stage.
With that being said, I feel the Eagles respond tonight. When faced with a potential hostel home crowd and a National TV audience, they will come into this game ready for the challenge.
Lets not even look at Philadelphia statistically because it does not matter. This team will play beyond their skill level tonight…past stats will have no bearing on Philly’s performance tonight.
Eagles vs Panthers, Setting “Our” Point Spread:
When we run this matchup through our NFL Betting System, we see excellent value on the Eagles.
Our NFL System, known as “The Guide to NFL Investing”, lets us find inaccurate lines through several propitiatory tools developed by OWR (click here to learn more).
For the Eagles vs Panthers, we have concluded the line should be closer to PHI -7.
This inaccuracy is caused by grossly incorrect public betting sentiment. Due to extreme negative sentiment (towards the Eagles), this line is mis-set. (more in summary)
As you can see, when we compare ‘our’ point spread (PHI -7) to the sportsbooks line of PHI +3, we are seeing excellent value in betting on the home dog Eagles.
Eagles vs Panthers Free Pick Conclusion:
Tonight, emotions will be running high. Throw the statistics, matchup and personnel out the window. Tonight’s Philly/Carolina game will be decided on pure NFL emotion.
Lets start with Carolina. They are a decent team, but as their record indicates, they are a team that fails to execute when it matters most. This team is undisciplined and will struggle to “put away” this reeling Eagles team on Monday Night. Furthermore, they will fail be ‘emotional prepared’ for the test they face from the wounded Eagles.
Needless to say, Philly is the story here. Will they respond to the challenge? I feel strongly that Philly will hold a distinct emotional edge in tonight’s contest.
Pride is a powerful motivator. With little to play for, the Eagles had a spirited week of practice, determined to make a statement in front of the NFL World on Monday Night Football.
Furthermore, 87% of bettors are taking Panthers and laying road points! This is type of one-sided betting shows the negative sentiment towards the Eagles. Extreme one-sided sentiment causes inaccurate NFL lines, which is has caused tonight. Oddsmakers are forced to make the Eagles and underdog, when they should be the favorite!
Bottom line, I have 2 reasons to play the Eagles. 1) They hold the emotional edge in tonight’s contest. 2) Extreme negative sentiment towards the Eagles has caused an inaccurate line.
By wagering on the Eagles +3 you will be playing on the side of ‘emotional edge’ and against one-sided public betting sentiment…This is a very powerful combination.
Eagles vs Carolina Free Pick:
Philadelphia Eagles +3
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