Ok, lets get right to the Week 7 Free NFL Picks!
Through our NFL Betting System and Week 7 Rankings, we are seeing some excellent Underdog value in Week 7. As you will see below, several of the “dogs” look to be discounted by the public, which are creating favorable/attractive bets.
If you are new to OWR, here we give you a brief summary of our NFL picks. But this is not ESPN or some ‘tout’ on the radio. We are transparent with regard to our record and our picks.
We don’t play hunches or feelings.
We use a systematic approach towards placing NFL wagers, which has historically yielded us success.
On the 2013 season, OWR is an overall 9 wins and 8 losses (53%). The last 2 weeks, we are currently on 4-5 run, and play to have another successful Week 7.
So, lets get right to the picks. Be sure to check back with us weekly to stay up-to-date with our NFL Free Picks!
Buffalo Bills +7 at Miami Dolphins
For Week 7, the online sportsbooks have set the Bills as 7 point ‘dogs’ at Miami. As will see, we see value in the Bills “getting” at Dolphins:
- The Bills are getting no respect from the betting public in 2013. In all 6 games in 2013, BUF has been a DOG. They have quiet covered 4 of these 6 games ATS
- BUF is 4-1 ATS when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. This shows they are able to keep the came tight, which brings me to my next point…
- Buffalo’s defense has been playing good football this season. They rank 15th in the league allowing 6.9 YDsA (yards per pass attempt).
- Miami is rarely laying more than 3 points, they play a style of football the controls the ball, and plays good defense.
- This type of style will lead to a close game when BUF travels to MIA in week 7
In summary, taking BUF and the 7 points looks like a solid value play in this matchup. BUF and MIA will both try to control the football, kick field goals and play Defense. I would be very surprised to see a blowup in this one.
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St Louis Rams +7 at Carolina Panthers
Here we go again, the odds makers and NFL betting public falling in love with the Carolina Panther. In Week 7, the sportsbooks have again set the Panthers as 7 point favorites at home vs the Rams. Lets, look at why the Rams show us value:
- Despite the public being unaware, the Rams are playing good football in 2013. They currently sit a 3-3 overall, winning impressively at Houston in week 6.
- Now, they travel to Carolina, looking to make it 3 wins in a row, I think this may happen.
- Carolina is flat out overrated by the public. In all lined games, the past 3 seasons, CAR is 15-22. Need I say more?
- Evidence that the public discounts the Rams (and favors the Panthers):
- This spread opened at CAR -4…big money coming in on CAR has moved it to CAR -7…
- 61% of the wagers are laying 7 points and taking CAR…
I just do not understand this fascination with Carolina. NFL bettors are successful going against sentiment. This matchup (STL +7) provides an excellent example of this type of play.
Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 vs San Diego Chargers
The online sportsbooks have set the Jaguars as 7 point home dogs, and by using our Betting tools, we see very good in the Jags. Now, lets talk about why…
- The Jaguars had an excellent showing in week 6 at the Broncos. This is the type of game can give a team momentum…
- Since Chad Henne has taken the helm, the is a new squad. Henne is connecting on 59% of this throws, averaging 6.6 yards per throw.
- The return of Justin Blackmon has not only opened up the Jags offense, but also put defenses on notice of a ‘weapon’ in the Jags lineup.
- With that said, this play is more about the Chargers…
- After a prime-time victory (Monday night) vs the Colts, the public is very high on San Diego.
- On the heels of this victory, the reality is, this Chargers team is due for a “let-down” on the road in Jacksonville…
- Furthermore, in week 8 the Chargers have a bye…
- With the Chargers looking forward to this week 8 bye, they might get caught sleeping in Week 7 vs the Jaguars.
Flying cross country, after a huge win, to play the lonely games and on the eve of a bye week…this smells like a receipt for a letdown. Take the Jags and the points in week 7.
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